TD Cowen Grows Bearish on $60 Billion Bitcoin Giant Strategy—Here’s Why

In brief

Strategy’s cash reserve is a prudent move, TD Cowen analysts said.
Still, the investment bank lowered its Strategy price target to $500 per share.
The company’s stock price hovered near a 13-month low.

TD Cowen analysts lowered their price target for Strategy shares on Wednesday, citing the volatility of the Bitcoin treasury leader’s stock price and incremental shareholder dilution as key factors.

The investment bank now sees Strategy’s shares hitting $500 next year, as opposed to its previous $535 per share estimate, according to a note shared with Decrypt. Strategy’s shares recently changed hands around $188, per Yahoo Finance, down about 24% over the last month.

Earlier this week, Strategy signaled that it had raised $1.44 billion to maintain a cash reserve. The company indicated that the funds would go toward dividend payments on its preferred shares, as its traditional source of funding grows constrained, and framed the reserve as a way to avoid the potential fate of selling its Bitcoin holdings—but said it would do so if need be.

Historically, Strategy has issued common shares to add to its $60 billion Bitcoin stockpile. However, the company has issued $7.7 billion worth of preferred shares this year, as its go-to move has become a less effective way to grow its Bitcoin holdings per share.

“Shoring up liquidity during times of stress is always prudent, in our view, and we believe all Strategy stakeholders are materially better off,” they wrote. “Strategy has gone a long way toward putting to bed any lingering questions around its ongoing access to capital markets.”

The analysts noted that their adjusted model for Strategy’s shares reflects the dilutive impact of raising cash to fund dividends on preferred shares, at a time when its stock price is hovering close to its lowest point in the past 13 months.

A lower stock price for Strategy has led to more dilution than the investment bank previously forecast. Along those lines, the analysts said Strategy’s heightened volatility warrants a lower earnings multiple, which was reduced to 5x from 9x.

Although a $500 per share estimate may seem “out of context,” given recent shifts in sentiment, the analysts said it’s reasonable, considering that the company has embedded leverage and Strategy’s Bitcoin premium can shift quickly alongside the digital asset’s price.

TD Cowen’s latest estimate for Strategy’s stock comes as some firms grow bullish. Earlier this week, investment bank Benchmark raised its 2026 price target to $705, for example.

In a note, Benchmark Analyst Mark Palmer argued that Strategy’s stock remains “one of the most powerful asymmetric vehicles in global markets” because of its unmatched ability to raise capital and benefit from Bitcoin’s potential upside.

Year-to-date, Strategy’s stock price has fallen about 35%. Over the same period of time, Bitcoin’s price has edged down 2.5% to just above $92,000, according to crypto data provider CoinGecko.