As 2024 nears its end, bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin (BTC) market remains strong. In October of the previous year, Matrixport’s research team used its “Matrix on Target” model to forecast the potential trajectory of BTC’s fifth bull market, suggesting significant price growth. According to this model, BTC’s price climbed from $22,500 at the start of 2023 to nearly $45,000 by year-end, a gain of about 100%. Entering early 2024, the market experienced a dip below $40,000, but subsequently rebounded to a high of $63,130 in March. During the summer, BTC prices fell back to around $50,000, while the model’s ultimate target envisions BTC rising parabolically to $125,000.
BTC’s price trends have largely aligned with the Matrix on Target model’s predictions. At key price levels of $45,000 and $63,130, actual prices were only off by 1% to 3%, demonstrating the model’s high accuracy. However, the actual timing of the Bitcoin halving event was slightly later than the model anticipated. While BTC has not yet reached the $125,000 target, the research team believes it could climb to new highs by late 2024 or 2025. It is worth noting that BTC’s future movement may not reach the $125,000 target in one go, but with multiple favorable factors at play, market sentiment remains optimistic about its long-term growth.
In addition to factors within the crypto market itself, the broader macroeconomic environment—particularly Federal Reserve policy—also impacts BTC prices. In September, the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest increase since April and keeping the annual rate elevated at 2.7%. Rising inflation has led the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach to rate cuts, likely delaying further cuts in the short term. This cautious monetary policy could exert some pressure on BTC's short-term performance, as high interest rates tend to dampen investment interest in riskier assets.
Notably, the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election has also significantly influenced BTC prices. During this election, Trump showed strong support for digital assets, even allowing Bitcoin payments during his campaign. His victory and the Republican Party's control of the Senate have raised expectations for more crypto-friendly policies. Trump has promised to make the U.S. the “global cryptocurrency capital,” establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, and appoint crypto-supportive regulators. These commitments have spurred investor optimism about the future of digital assets, leading to a broad rally in the crypto market.
According to data from MEXC, Bitcoin surged during the election period, reaching a new all-time high of $75,252 on November 6, with intraday peaks hitting $76,400 and a daily gain of about 9%. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE), also rallied, reflecting market optimism for more favorable crypto policies. MEXC, as one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchanges, has provided diverse financial tools and liquidity solutions to support both institutional and individual investors, making trading flexible and convenient. During the election period, MEXC saw a sharp increase in trading volume, offering crucial liquidity to the BTC market and further contributing to the growth of the digital asset market.
The cryptocurrency market has long been under stringent regulation from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) during the Biden administration. SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s stringent regulatory approach to the crypto market has been highly controversial; he argues that current laws are required to address the industry's potential risks. In contrast, Trump has repeatedly criticized the existing regulatory policies and promised, if elected, to dismiss Gensler and introduce a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. Trump’s victory has not only raised Bitcoin’s price outlook but also brought new confidence to the market. Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, commented that the crypto market has faced various regulatory restrictions for years but now appears poised for a more relaxed policy environment. Since early 2024, BTC prices have risen about 70%, outperforming both the U.S. stock market and gold, further proving its potential as a hedge and growth asset.
Overall, current BTC price trends align closely with Matrixport’s earlier bull market forecast. While BTC remains some distance from the ultimate target of $125,000, the research team believes that BTC’s long-term growth prospects remain positive, given fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment and potential regulatory changes. The future trajectory of BTC prices will be influenced by global economic developments, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and investor confidence in the crypto market. Should the Fed ease monetary policy further, increased global liquidity could bring additional capital into the cryptocurrency market. Meanwhile, as the trading ecosystem continues to evolve and regulatory conditions improve, BTC prices are expected to steadily approach new highs. Overall, BTC appears to have room for growth in the coming years, and market confidence in its long-term potential remains strong.
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